It is no coincidence that the break-up of the Central Trains franchise was announced yesterday.

It is a year - almost to the day - since Transport Secretary Alistair Darling served notice on the Birmingham based operator.

No coincidence because the Department for Transport knew this anniversary would see more and more people asking difficult questions about their progress since.

According to a rail industry source, none of the train operators involved had " meaningful" discussions with the DfT on the way forward until March this year and, even after that, the process was hampered by the shutting down of the Strategic Rail Authority and subsequent transfer of power to the new DfT Rail group.

With that in mind, it is no surprise the Central Trains franchise has been given a 18-month extension - as revealed by The Birmingham Post in March - while a number of loose ends left dangling by yesterday's announcement are tied up.

Crucially, more work must be done on whether Central Trains services from Birmingham Snow Hill will transfer to Chiltern Railways, which would become the exclusive train operator at the city's second major station.

Everyone, uncertain staff included, felt this was perhaps the easiest part of the break-up to predict.

But it has transpired it might end up costing the taxpayer more money for Chiltern to takeover these services. The logistical upheaval for a firm based in Banbury and largely focused on the Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire and Warwickshire commuter belt would be significant and costly.

Nationally-speaking, yesterday's announcement is just one part of streamlining the management of the railways - from 25 franchises to 19.

But from a West Midlands point of view, the prospect of streamlining services and routes is the biggest issue.

Regional rail bosses tell us in the last ten years rail travel in the West Midlands has grown by 44 per cent, compared to a national average of 34 per cent, and this could increase by as much again by 2011.

Yet, most acutely since the financial chaos brought about by the Hatfield disaster in 2000 - but ever since privatisation actually - the threat has been to our own, successful commuter services in favour of intercity services (largely Virgin Trains) that run through our region.

Depressingly, the DfT has made it clear that the new West Midlands franchise will be in keeping with the recent Route Utilisation Strategy.

This bitterly-received document, a kiss-off to the West Midlands from the SRA, axed the Wolverhampton to Walsall, Stoke to Stafford and Stafford to Nuneaton line.

It also plans to deal with overcrowding on the most popular lines by increasing costs. Fees at station car parks will go up at peak times to encourage commuters to leave before rush hour.

Cheaper rail fares in periods when trains are less used was also proposed.

In general, the document attempts to manage limited resources, without considering increasing those resources. In this way, we get lesser used lines axed to bolster busy Birmingham- bound trains.

Harsh and short-sighted perhaps but probably practical in the current climate.

But how then do we square this with the news that the DfT has asked Central Trains to calculate the savings that would be made by reducing services on the Cross City Line from six an hour to four?

No only is this overwhelmingly the busiest West Midland commuter line, it is the busiest outside London.

If the franchise specifications, when they are finally worked out so a company can bid for it, include less services on the line, expect regional transport bosses to hit the roof.

Centro, the region's passenger transport executive, has already lost the right to co-sign the new franchise.

Director general Rob Donald is reasonably relaxed about this - unlike his opposite numbers in other conurbations preferring to concentrate on lobbying the DfT to maintain such services and keep whatever operate takes over based in Birmingham and, as such, locally accountable.

But it is very hard to be confident that the new West Midland franchise will include the same frequency of services that exist now, if it takes the RUS as its primary text.